Generation jobless无业的一代--全球失业青年数量惊人

Generation jobless
无业的一代

The number of young people out of work globally is nearly as big as the population of the United States
全球失业青年数量趋近美国人口的数量

Apr 27th 2013 | From the print edition



“YOUNG people ought not to be idle. It is very bad for them,” said Margaret Thatcher in 1984. She was right: there are few worse things that society can do to its young than to leave them in limbo. Those who start their careers on the dole are more likely to have lower wages and more spells of joblessness later in life, because they lose out on the chance to acquire skills and self-confidence in their formative years.

“年轻人不该游手好闲，他们这样没好处。”1984年撒切尔夫人如是说。她说对了：一个社会最糟糕的状态便是让年轻人茫然无助。那些靠救济金过活的人工资更低，人生后期也会经历更多次的失业。因为他们在性格决定的时期就已经失去了机会，没有学会技能和自信。

Yet more young people are idle than ever (see article). OECD figures suggest that 26m 15- to 24-year-olds in developed countries are not in employment, education or training; the number of young people without a job has risen by 30% since 2007. The International Labour Organisation reports that 75m young people globally are looking for a job. World Bank surveys suggest that 262m young people in emerging markets are economically inactive. Depending on how you measure them, the number of young people without a job is nearly as large as the population of America (311m).

然而，今天仍有更多的年轻人失业（见另文）。经合组织的数据显示，发达国家有2600万15至24岁的年轻人未受教育、培训并且处于失业状态之中；2007年后，无业年轻人的数量上升了30%。国际劳工组织报告，全球有7500万的年轻人正在找工作。世界银行调查显示，新兴市场有26200万年轻人在经济方面无所作为。按读者自己的计算标准来说，无业青年的数量跟美国人口数量一样多（31100万）。

Two factors play a big part. First, the long slowdown in the West has reduced demand for labour, and it is easier to put off hiring young people than it is to fire older workers. Second, in emerging economies population growth is fastest in countries with dysfunctional labour markets, such as India and Egypt.

有两点因素发挥着很大的作用。第一，西方国家长期的缓滞减少了用工需求，年轻人比老员工更容易解雇。第二，在新兴经济体中，有些国家的劳动市场不但有缺陷，而且人口增长却最为迅猛，比如印度和埃及。

The result is an “arc of unemployment”, from southern Europe through north Africa and the Middle East to South Asia, where the rich world’s recession meets the poor world’s youthquake. The anger of the young jobless has already burst onto the streets in the Middle East. Violent crime, generally in decline in the rich world, is rising in Spain, Italy and Portugal—countries with startlingly high youth unemployment.

结果是产生了一条“失业孤线”，从南欧经北非和中东到南亚，而在南亚，富裕国家的衰退引发了贫穷国家年轻人骚动。在中东，这些无业青年走上街头发泄愤怒。暴力犯罪虽然在富裕国家总体上呈现下降趋势，但在西班牙、意大利和葡萄牙呈现上升趋势，而这些国家的年轻人失业率高得惊人。